1. Only Jega Can Postpone The Feb 14 Election
Section 26(1) of the Electoral Act 2010 (amended) states that:
"Where a date has been appointed for the holding of an election, and there is reason to believe that a serious breach of the peace is likely to occur if the election is proceeded with on that date or it is impossible to conduct the elections as a result of natural disasters or other emergencies, the commission may postpone the election and shall in respect of the area, or areas concerned, appoint another date for the holding of the postponed election provided that such reason for the postponement is cogent and verifiable."
This section of the Electoral Act strictly empowers only the INEC boss to determine the date of States and Federal election. INEC is the only body empowered by the law to reschedule, shift or postpone the Feb 14 Presidential election. Neither the NSA, Council of State nor the President enjoys such power irrespective of their sentiment.
2. ...If INEC Decides To Postpone The Feb 14 Poll:
Postponing and rescheduling the Feb 14 election must be in accordance to Section 132(2) of the 1999 Constitution(as amended), which posit that the Presidential election must be held not later than 30 days before the expiration of this tenure. This tenure expires May 29, hence, the election mut be held on or before April 28. However, with over 80% PVC collection rate(which may rise to 90% before the week runs out), I don't see any possibility of INEC postponing the poll. Even if they do, Attahiru Jega will still be in-charge. Jega tenure ends in June.
3. ...In Times of War
Section 135(3) of the Constitution state and I quote:
"If the Federation is at war in which the territory of Nigeria is physically involved and the President considers that it is not practicable to hold elections, the National Assembly may by resolution extend the period of four years mentioned in subsection (2) of this section from time to time; but no such extension shall exceed a period of six months at any one time."
Now, some may want to hide under the Boko-haram insurgency to justify their selfish call for the Feb 14 election to be postponed after the May 29 expiry date of this tenure. For such call to be actualised, 2/3 members of the NASS must sanction it. With APC having 42 and 158 in Senate and the House of Representative respectively. There is no way officers of the ruling PDP and the President can have their way except there is a compromise from the APC camp. Hence, this option is as good as DEAD(save a compromise of APC NASS members). There is nothing NSA or National Council of State can do about this.
4. Option of Interim National Government:
The ING is alien to our constitution and the electoral act. After the election is held, whoever is declared winner other than the President becomes the President-elect. The incumbent President Jonathan will have no choice but to handover power to on May 29. This is sacrosanct. The talk of handing power to an Interim government, whether the Army or a "coalition" government is unconstitutional and will definitely lead to constitutional crises, anarchy and breakdown of law and order(similar to what happened in Cote'd voire in 2010). In such a case, the victorious candidate could form a parallel government, which will be recognized by the international community until the illegal ING is brought down. This is the law and there is nothing any NSA or Council of State can do about it.
Section 26(1) of the Electoral Act 2010 (amended) states that:
"Where a date has been appointed for the holding of an election, and there is reason to believe that a serious breach of the peace is likely to occur if the election is proceeded with on that date or it is impossible to conduct the elections as a result of natural disasters or other emergencies, the commission may postpone the election and shall in respect of the area, or areas concerned, appoint another date for the holding of the postponed election provided that such reason for the postponement is cogent and verifiable."
This section of the Electoral Act strictly empowers only the INEC boss to determine the date of States and Federal election. INEC is the only body empowered by the law to reschedule, shift or postpone the Feb 14 Presidential election. Neither the NSA, Council of State nor the President enjoys such power irrespective of their sentiment.
2. ...If INEC Decides To Postpone The Feb 14 Poll:
Postponing and rescheduling the Feb 14 election must be in accordance to Section 132(2) of the 1999 Constitution(as amended), which posit that the Presidential election must be held not later than 30 days before the expiration of this tenure. This tenure expires May 29, hence, the election mut be held on or before April 28. However, with over 80% PVC collection rate(which may rise to 90% before the week runs out), I don't see any possibility of INEC postponing the poll. Even if they do, Attahiru Jega will still be in-charge. Jega tenure ends in June.
3. ...In Times of War
Section 135(3) of the Constitution state and I quote:
"If the Federation is at war in which the territory of Nigeria is physically involved and the President considers that it is not practicable to hold elections, the National Assembly may by resolution extend the period of four years mentioned in subsection (2) of this section from time to time; but no such extension shall exceed a period of six months at any one time."
Now, some may want to hide under the Boko-haram insurgency to justify their selfish call for the Feb 14 election to be postponed after the May 29 expiry date of this tenure. For such call to be actualised, 2/3 members of the NASS must sanction it. With APC having 42 and 158 in Senate and the House of Representative respectively. There is no way officers of the ruling PDP and the President can have their way except there is a compromise from the APC camp. Hence, this option is as good as DEAD(save a compromise of APC NASS members). There is nothing NSA or National Council of State can do about this.
4. Option of Interim National Government:
The ING is alien to our constitution and the electoral act. After the election is held, whoever is declared winner other than the President becomes the President-elect. The incumbent President Jonathan will have no choice but to handover power to on May 29. This is sacrosanct. The talk of handing power to an Interim government, whether the Army or a "coalition" government is unconstitutional and will definitely lead to constitutional crises, anarchy and breakdown of law and order(similar to what happened in Cote'd voire in 2010). In such a case, the victorious candidate could form a parallel government, which will be recognized by the international community until the illegal ING is brought down. This is the law and there is nothing any NSA or Council of State can do about it.
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